COVID-19 VACCINE ADDRESSABLE MARKET

Before the spread of COVID-19, the global vaccines market size was worth USD 41.6 billion in 2018 and was projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.7% in the 2019-2026 period. The exponential rise in the number of global COVID-19 cases and deaths since the early outbreak of the infection in China has made it critical to develop a treatment of vaccine against the novel coronavirus. The sheer scale of this epidemic, with over 2.3 million cases and around 156,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 18^th April provides an opportunity for a vaccine against the virus to reach blockbuster potential. Every announcement of a vaccine candidate entering a trial or partnership between companies to focus on development of the vaccines generates hope as countries have resorted to drastic measures such as social isolation to control the pandemic.

Based on data published by World Health Organization (WHO), there were around 70 vaccine candidates under development as of 11^th April.  One of the most promising candidates is Moderna Therapeutics’ mRNA vaccine, which got an unprecedented regulatory approval to skip animal testing.  As part of an early stage clinical trial, the company tested the vaccine candidate against the novel coronavirus on the first patient on March 17th.

There are three other vaccine candidates, which have reached the stage of human trials and can be considered as the frontrunners in the race to develop a vaccine against this outbreak.

• Innovio Pharmaceuticals’ DNA-based vaccine, which started human trials in the first week of April;


• China-based CanSino Bio’s adenovirus type-5 vector-based recombinant vaccine; and


• A vaccine candidate  developed by Sinovac Biotech in collaboration with China National Pharmaceutical Group

The technology platforms of pipeline candidates for COVID-19 vaccine are diverse and include conventional approaches such as live attenuated virus, inactivated virus, and viral vectors as well as next-generation technologies such as nucleic acid, virus-like particles, and recombinant protein.

MARKET DRIVERS

“Large Number of Initiatives to Accelerate the Development of COVID-19 Vaccine”

There is a growing level of public-private partnership worldwide to assist in speeding up the development of a vaccine against COVID-19.

In  latest news, Moderna has received USD 483 million from Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) to assist in the development of the vaccine. The company is aiming to commence Phase 2 study in the second quarter of 2020. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has entered into a partnership with 16 pharmaceutical companies under the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines initiative to find either a treatment or vaccine to end the pandemic.

Regulatory changes are being undertaken to speed up the development of  COVID-19 vaccines. Moderna Therapeutics started human trials in March after an unprecedented regulatory approval to skip animal trials.

MARKET RESTRAINTS

“Development of an Affordable Treatment against the Disease Could Dampen the Demand for COVID-19 Vaccine”

A significant level of activity is also happening in finding a treatment for the infection caused by COVID-19. Hydroxychloroquine, which was found to be effective against coronavirus, is being considered as one of the most promising drug candidates. Major pharmaceutical companies have started evaluating the efficacy of their drugs, which have been used in treatment of other conditions, as a potential cure for COVID-19.

• Kevzara, currently used to treat arthritis, is being tested as a potential treatment by Sanofi and Regeneron.


• Roche Pharma, a division of F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., has initiated phase-III clinical trials of its drug Actemra. The drug, which is currently approved for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, is being tested in collaboration with the U.S. Health and Human Services Department (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) division).

If a treatment against COVID-19 is found before the development of a vaccine, it is expected to affect the demand for vaccines considerably and affect the COVID-19 vaccine-addressable market growth. The impact will be more severe if the treatment is an affordable one or is covered by the respective governments of the affected countries. For example, the cost of treatment of the disease with the help of Hydroxychloroquine is expected to be very low.

KEY PLAYERS COVERED

GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Merck, and Sanofi account for around 80-85% of the vaccines market share. All these players have already entered the race to develop a vaccine to prevent infections from the novel coronavirus. There are a large number of smaller companies, including the ones based in China, which  have  potential vaccine candidates under development.

• GlaxoSmithKline plc (UK)


• Pfizer Inc. (USA)


• Sanofi (France)


• Merck & Co. (USA)


• Johnson & Johnson Services, Inc (USA)


• Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (USA)


• Moderna Inc. (USA)


• CanSino Bio-B (China)


• Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (China)


• BioNTech SE (Germany)


• University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine (USA)


• Other Players

KEY INSIGHTS

• COVID-19 Disease Overview


• Epidemiology and Outbreak Analysis of COVID 19 by Key Countries


• Comparison of COVID-19 Pandemic with Previous Pandemics such as SARS and MERS


• Steps being Taken by Governments to Develop a COVID-19 Vaccine


• Key Industry Developments – Collaborations & Partnerships in COVID-19 Vaccine Development


• Statistics on Ageing Population – For Key Countries


• Statistics on Prevalence of Chronic Diseases – For Key Countries

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

North America accounted for around 53% of the global vaccines market share in 2018. The addressable market by region for the COVID-19 vaccine will depend on various factors such as the extent to which countries have been impacted by the epidemic, quality of  health system, level of economic development, support provided by the government to drive the coverage of the vaccine, and price of the vaccine along with the availability of a treatment. As of 18^th April, the U.S. has been the most affected country due to the pandemic with over 715,000 cases and continuous rise in cases will enable the region to dominate the COVID-19 vaccine-addressable market share. USA is followed by Spain, Italy, France, Germany, United Kingdom, China, Turkey, Iran, and Belgium based on the number of cases.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• On April 16th, BARDA committed USD 483 million to Moderna Inc. to assist in the late-stage clinical trials and scale up manufacturing of the company’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate.


• On April 16^th, Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. received USD 6.9 million funding to start clinical trials in South Korea.


• On April 16th, Sinovac Biotech Ltd. teamed up with Dynavax to develop a COVID-19 vaccine using Dynavax’s vaccine adjuvant and Sinovac’s chemically inactivated coronavirus vaccine candidate.


• On March 30th, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services took steps towards accelerating the clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine with the aim to make the vaccine available for emergency use in early 2021.


• On March 4^th, Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. announced that the human clinical trials of their DNA vaccine candidate are scheduled in April.

Report Scope

• Thorough assessment of the addressable market for COVID-19 vaccines in terms of revenues and number of doses based on various assumptions at the global level;


• Distribution of the addressable market for COVID-19 vaccines by major regions and key countries in terms of revenues and number of doses;


• Drivers and restraints to the addressable market for COVID-19 vaccines;


• Assessment of the pipeline products by areas such as development stage, molecule type/technology platform, phases, sponsor, and study type;


• Comprehensive profiles of the key companies focusing on the development of a COVID-19 vaccines and having a vaccine candidate in the later stages of development;


• Insights on the epidemiology of COVID-19 for key countries and comparison of COVID-19 pandemic with previous pandemics such as SARS and MERS; and


• Insights on the steps being taken by governments to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, key industry trends, key developments.

Report Methodology

• This report will be developed through a thorough assessment of data published in credible desk research sources and interviews conducted with key opinion leaders.


• Analysis of various factors such as the most promising vaccine candidates, their technology platform, pricing of comparable vaccines, and various assumptions in relation to the number of doses required, financing of the cost of vaccines, vaccination level, etc. will be taken into consideration.


• Desk research sources includes global and regional clinical trials databases; annual reports, websites, press releases & investor presentations of companies; white papers; news articles; reports published by industry associations; articles/reports published on databases such as NCBI, ResearchGate; and internal databases.


• Estimation of the market size based on factors taken into consideration as below

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  • Treatment for COVID-19 being available versus treatment for COVID-19 not being available;
  
  
  • Governments bear the cost of the vaccine versus governments do not bear the cost of the vaccine; and
  
  
  • Average price per dose is similar to the currently available flu vaccines versus average price per dose is similar to available vaccines for respiratory infections.