Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis, By Vehicle Type (Aerial Delivery Drones, Ground Delivery Bots, Self-Driving Trucks & Vans), By Solution (Hardware, Software, Services), By Range (Short Range (<20km) and Long Range (>20km)), and Regional Forecast, 2024-2032

The autonomous last mile delivery market size was valued at USD 16.66 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow from USD 20.52 billion in 2024 to USD 134.90 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 26.5% during the forecast period.

Autonomous last mile delivery is the last stage of the courier, parcel express, where the parcel is delivered to end-users at their doorsteps without human intervention. This is achieved through the use of drones, autonomous vehicles, and robots. Automated parcel delivery technologies are rising due to consumers' demand for fastest deliveries. The production of small mobile delivery robots & drones has seen significant growth in the past few years owing to the rise in e-commerce business across the globe. Moreover, rapid technology developments, shifting consumer expectations for same-day delivery in some regions, and companies' new model innovation with a wider range altogether are propelling the growth of the market.

The COVID-19 pandemic boosted e-commerce, accelerating digitalization and emphasizing data's value for last-mile delivery tech. Contactless delivery, driven by consumer demand for one-day service, propelled drones and delivery robots. For example, Zipline aided vaccine distribution in Ghana. Companies adapted by treating stores as warehouses and using AI for inventory, reshaping last-mile delivery fueled the market development during the pandemic.

Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Trends

Rapid Increase In E-Commerce Sales & Consumers Demand For Fast Delivery to Augment Growth

In recent years, the trend of shopping and urban commercial delivery has vastly changed. The boom in the sale of e-commerce has challenged manufacturing plants, warehouses, or distribution centers to other businesses or retail stores to deliver small orders at different locations at stipulated times. According to the European Union, In the survey conducted, the percentage of individuals accessing the internet in the three months prior increased to 75% in 2023, up from 57% in 2013. The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark reported the highest proportions of online shoppers in 2023, with 93%, 91%, and 90% respectively. As per the Capgemini survey, 56% of online shoppers between 18 and 34 age expected same-day delivery, while 61% of consumers were prepared to pay an additional charge for the convenience of same-day service. This trend will accelerate to create a demand for an autonomous robot, drone delivery.

Furthermore, many organizations are figuring out to effectively tackle the challenging customer need & delivery solutions. E-commerce companies globally have announced multibillion-dollar supply chain investments to promise faster deliveries, along with additional benefits of boost in customer satisfaction, rein in costs, and gain a competitive advantage. Therefore, all these developments to fulfill customers' demands will propel the autonomous packages delivery market in the future.

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Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Growth Factors

Service Innovation and Use of Advanced Technology Platforms to Propel Market 

New vehicles are changing the face of last mile delivery services. Major companies are experimenting & investing in R&D on new solutions to combat rising customers demand. Moreover, rapid progress in delivery technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) based autonomous delivery vehicles, drones, and others are directly helping by reducing dependency on worker availability, driving down the labor costs, and also enables around clock delivery.

Furthermore, many giant retailers are testing unmanned parcel delivery products. In January 2023, Baylor University launched Starship Technologies' robot food delivery service, utilizing a fleet of 20 autonomous robots. These robots currently deliver from seven campus eateries, including Panda Express, Steak ‘n Shake, two Starbucks locations, Which Wich, Moe’s, and Rising Roll. Through the Grubhub app on iOS and Android, the university's over 20,000 students, faculty, and staff are able to order food and beverages from these eateries, with delivery to any campus building typically taking just minutes.

Further, smart tracking & route optimization solutions are also helping companies to boost the efficiency of deliveries. These solutions often leverage technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to optimize routes and reduce delays. Thus, advanced technology and companies' active involvement are propelling to autonomous last mile delivery market growth.

RESTRAINING FACTORS

Lack of Infrastructure Support and Range Complexity May Restrain Growth

The parcel delivery cost from autonomous vehicles is expected to be lower in the forecast period but dependent on the delivery pattern (same day, 30 minutes, next day). Autonomous robots operate efficiently if all the expected parameters are met well. Infrastructure support is one of the key factors responsible for their performance. This delivery through drones initially requires a standard platform for landing & takeoff. Also, connecting through the internet to track the time, hour, and exact location information to the end user is important for driving parcel deliveries.

Moreover, in some regions, a weak network and lack of infrastructures may result in delays in delivery time, and location mismatch, which further affects the overall operation & tracking. The companies are currently in the stage of developing a long-range-based delivery product to meet the end-user need. There are also many restrictions associated with automated last miles delivery services, such as low range of travel anxiety, moderate performance, and lack of precise operation in rural areas, which may lead to the lower demand for unmanned last mile delivery services. It will subsequently hamper the market growth.

Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Segmentation Analysis

By Vehicle Type Analysis

Development of Aerial Delivery Drones Segment to Dominate the Market

Based on the vehicle type, the market share is broken down into ground delivery bots, aerial delivery drones, and self-driving trucks & vans. The ground delivery bots segment is predicted to hold the dominant market share during 2024-2032. Continuous advances in ground delivery bots technology are being made. For instance, Amazon’s product delivery robot “scout” can roll along sidewalks and deliver packages at customers' doorsteps. Similarly, various developments carried out across the globe are expected to grow the market during the forecast period.

Aerial delivery drones have wider scope in the market due to their applications in last mile delivery services as they travel by air and are not involved in road traffic congestion and other issues that can hamper the service of the product. These factors are expected to boost the aerial drone parcel delivery applications during the forecast period.

Advancement of autonomous technology such as self-driving trucks & vans led by innovative efforts by prominent players including Volvo, Tesla, General Motors, Nissan, and Renault will boost the growth of self-driving trucks & vans in last mile delivery services.

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By Solution Analysis

Hardware Segment to Dominate the Market Share owing to Better Performance Wide Application Range

Based on solution, the market share is split into hardware, software, and services. The hardware segment is anticipated to hold the largest market share through 2032 in terms of revenue owing to its increased use of airframes, global positioning & navigation system, sensors, camera in advanced drones, and autonomous delivery robot applications.

Software such as route optimization & planning, live tracking, fleet management, inventory management, and others forms a medium through which autonomous mile delivery services operate efficiently. For instance, Starship Technologies company uses Sitara processors, which are specifically optimized for the low powered robot operation of machine learning in the robot itself, which enables mmWave sensor data to be utilized for accurate categorization in real-time. Such innovation and advanced use of software for the applications of last mile deliveries is expected to boost the market's growth.

By Range Analysis

Long Range Segment to Show Rapid Growth as Key Players Boost R&D and Innovation

Based on range, the market share is bifurcated into long-range and short-range. Currently, the short-range segment will lead the global market share through 2032 in terms of revenue. The global market is in the introduction phase due to which autonomous drones and vehicle manufacturers have introduced short-range delivery drones. In addition, this helps manufacturers to carry out different testing, which is expected to drive the growth of short-range(<20km) last mile delivery drones across the globe.

Long-range parcel delivery robots/products include ground delivery bots and self-driving trucks& vans, which deliver last mile services to customers' doorsteps. In addition, the companies have carried out numerous developments in the last mile delivery system/services, which is expected to foster the growth of the long-range (>20km) market in the forecast period.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

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North America dominated the global market in 2023 with a revenue share of USD 6.84 billion. It is anticipated that the region will continue hold the largest share over the projected timeframe. The companies' continuous involvement in carrying out innovation related to infrastructure developments, funding, and acceptance of drone delivery among people, and increasing e-commerce sales in these regions are propelling to boost the market growth. Moreover, during the pandemic, across North America, customers are inclined to e-shopping for daily necessities such as groceries, medicines, and others as preventive measures to avoid human-to-human interaction or contact. Thus, to deliver the orders, shop owners and other ecosystem players have collaborated and agreed with local & international drones and ground delivery bot manufacturers to offer their products. For instance, In January 2024, Amazon introduced its drone delivery service, Prime Air, in two U.S. cities in 2022. The company intended to expand to three additional cities in 2024, with one each in Italy, the U.K., and the U.S. Such types of developments and strategies across the North American region supplementing the market growth.

Key players operating in the Europe market such as Airbus, Flytrex, Savioke, and delivery companies such as Amazon, UPS, DHL, and others are developing different autonomous last mile delivery vehicles and collaborating with different companies to ensure speedy delivery along with the safety of customers are creating a demand for autonomous last mile delivery services in Europe regional market.

Leading players in the Asia Pacific region, such as JD.com, Meituan Dianping, Nuro, and Navya, deliver medical supplies between hospitals campuses. ThyssenKrupp is trying a mini robot to send specific components to their technicians at the right place and time. Such developments from the Asian players in the delivery market is expected to boost the market growth in the future.

In the Middle East and African countries, economic development and industrial expansion will offer promising opportunities for the automation of last mile delivery services. Furthermore, a drastic rise in unmanned autonomous vehicles in Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the UAE are observed. Moreover, demonstration of delivery robot package delivery and change in customers' lifestyle are expected to boost the regional market growth during 2024-2032.

List of Key Companies in Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market

Increasing Service Innovation and Usage of Advanced Technology Thrives for Market Competition

The competitive landscape of the Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market is characterized by the presence of various players striving for market dominance. Key players include established companies, such as Amazon, DHL, and JD.com, among others.

Additionally, emerging startups and technology firms specializing in autonomous vehicles and delivery systems contribute to market competition. These companies compete on factors, such as technology innovation, service reliability, delivery speed, cost-effectiveness, geographical reach, and partnerships with retailers and logistics providers. As the market continues to evolve, competitiveness is expected to intensify, driving further advancements and consolidation within the industry.

LIST OF KEY COMPANIES PROFILED:

• Airbus S.A.S (Leiden, Netherlands)


• Amazon (Seattle, U.S.)


• DHL International GmbH (Bonn, Germany)


• DPD Group (Issy-les-Moulineaux, France)


• Drone Delivery Canada (Vaughan, Canada)


• Flirtey (Reno, U.S.)


• Flytrex (Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel)


• JD.com (Beijing, China)


• MATTERNET (California, U.S.)


• Savioke (Campbell, U.S.)


• Starship Technologies (San Francisco, U.S.)


• United Parcel Service of America, Inc (Atlanta, U.S.)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS

• March 2024 - Yango, a global tech company, introduced its autonomous last mile delivery. Utilizing cutting-edge artificial intelligence and advanced robotics, Yango's last mile delivery solutions debuted at the LEAP 2024 international tech fair in Saudi Arabia.


• February 2024 - Starship Technologies secured USD 90 Million in funding, led by Plural and Iconical, for an autonomous delivery robot service globally. The funds fuel the expansion efforts to meet rising demand for home deliveries.


• December 2023 - Cenntro Electric Group Limited, a prominent EV technology company specializing in advanced electric commercial vehicles, delivered over 250 autonomous delivery vehicles to Zelos (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd.


• September 2022 - Magna showcased its expertise in automotive electrification and autonomy at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, unveiling a "last mile" delivery solution for urban areas. The solution combines an electric robot, Magna's autonomous driving system, and delivery software.


• January 2022 - Udelv introduced the Udlev transporter, an autonomous delivery vehicle with a modular cargo space called the uPod. Capable of carrying up to 2,000 pounds and making 80 stops per run, it delivers various goods, reaching speeds of 70 mph. With an electric range of 160 to 300 miles, it offers fast charging for up to 220 miles in 45 minutes. Equipped with Mobileye Drive suite and Udelv's teleoperation system, it connects to proprietary software for intelligent loading, unloading, and customer returns.

REPORT COVERAGE

The global autonomous last mile delivery market research report provides a detailed analysis of the market. It focuses on key aspects such as leading companies, product types, and leading applications of the product. Besides this, it offers insights into the market trends and highlights key industry developments. In addition to the factors above, the report encompasses several factors that have contributed to the market's growth over recent years.

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