Autonomous Train Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis, By Type (GoA 1, GoA 2, GoA 3, GoA 4), By Application Type (Sub Urban Area, Urban Area) And Regional Forecast, 2024-2032

Autonomous trains run without human interference and are monitored from a control station known as driverless trains. These trains are outfitted with Automatic Train Protection (ATP), a train protection technology that limits the speed and can stop automatically at signals.

The primary drivers influencing the adoption of autonomous train technology are increasing budget allocation for railway expansion, the increased need for secure, safer, and efficient transportation, decreased pollution and accidents, and higher passenger capacity. Furthermore, improvements in railway infrastructure, particularly in emerging nations, and growth in freight movement through trains are suitable for market expansion. These reasons are expected to significantly influence the autonomous train market growth throughout the projected period. Recent advances, such as testing autonomous passenger vehicles, are projected to accelerate industry growth.

• For instance, in September 2021, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Engineering joined forces with Keolis and Mitsubishi Corp. in a new concession of Dubai Metro and Dubai Tram.

Several key companies in the industry are using different growth strategies such as mergers, acquisitions, partnerships, and agreements to enhance their market position.

• For instance, in August 2021, Hitachi Rail STS (Ansaldo) entered into a deal with the Thales Group to buy the Thales Group's Ground Transportation System division. Hitachi Rail expects to achieve development due to this arrangement by extending the scope of its rail signaling systems business and developing its rail automation systems business internationally.


• In March 2021, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Engineering Ltd (MHI-ENG) and KEOLIS SA announced the formation of a consortium ("the Consortium") and the signing of a 15-year contract with the Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) of Dubai to operate and maintain Dubai's world-class driverless metro and tram networks.

The growing electrification of metro/monorail systems is due to the global implementation of stringent emission standards. The introduction of linked metro rail also threatens the international autonomous train business. Also, the increased likelihood of system hacking and the expensive cost of railway automation impede industry expansion.

Impact of COVID-19 on Autonomous Train Market

The COVID-19 pandemic has hampered the railway sector. Due to the pandemic, major railway projects have been halted, which will provide a threat to the autonomous train industry. Personal mobility increased dramatically as a result of the pandemic. Following the pandemic, there was a major drop in demand for new trains as people shunned public transportation, preferring private automobiles to escape crowds. Furthermore, component manufacturing has been halted and tiny Tier II and Tier III firms have suffered financial concerns.

The railway sector is very capital-intensive and requires continued funding to stay in business. As a result, production halt during the pandemic and decreasing demand following the pandemic had an extraordinary impact on autonomous train manufacturers.

• For example, Bombardier proclaimed the suspension of its factories in March 2020 while Alstom suffered a significant impact on its financial performance like other European companies. According to Alstom, the company's sales declined by 27% in the first quarter of 2020-21 (April-June). However, CAF began gradually restarting operations after April 2020, with all necessary safety safeguards.

However, with increased environmental concerns, the necessity for public transit and carpooling is projected to help the railway industry flourish.

GoA1- Train Operator controls train manually

GoA2- Semi-automatic

GoA3- Driverless Train Operation (DTO)

GoA4- Unattended Train Operation (UTO)

Key Insights

The report will cover the following key insights:

• Key Industry Developments – Mergers, Acquisitions, and Partnerships


• Porter’s Five Forces Analysis


• PEST Analysis


• Technological Developments


• Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Autonomous Train Market

Analysis by Application

The passenger segment is estimated to hold the largest share of the market during the forecast period. Autonomous trains provide fast and efficient transportation. Several cities are building new rail infrastructure to relieve traffic congestion and provide an economical mode of transportation, both intercity and intracity. Rapid urbanization and the desire for enhanced connection, comfort, and dependability will fuel the growth of this segment.

Analysis by Automation Grade

The increased deployment of GoA4 technology in metro rail will drive the market growth. GoA4 refers to Unattended Train Operation (UTO) in which starting and stopping, door operation, and emergency management are all automated with no onboard employees. Rail is regarded as one of the safest ways of land transport. It is more appealing to customers since it provides a far better service to potential passengers, resulting in a growth in passenger numbers. Consumer demand for safer and more efficient transportation is growing worldwide, emphasizing the significance of adopting modern technology-based transportation.

• For instance, in October 2021, the German Rail Corporation and Siemens Mobility created the world's first self-driving train in rail traffic. The train is automated and operated by digital technologies. The driver remains aboard the train to monitor passengers' travel.

Regional Analysis

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Geographically, the market is segmented into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Rest of the World. Asia Pacific has one of the world's largest rail networks and is expected to dominate the global autonomous train market share. The railway network plays a severe role in the economic growth of Asia Pacific countries. The increased investment in rail infrastructure expansion by governments throughout the region, particularly China, India, and Japan, is expected to drive significant growth in the industry. The increased popularity of metro travel as a means of public transportation in India also drives industry expansion.

• For instance, in February 2022, the Hangzhou metro launched two additional lines and an extension adding more than 59 route kilometers to the network.

Asia Pacific is characterized by industrialized and emerging economies such as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Bangladesh. Major companies are investing in rail projects in Asia Pacific, owing to considerable potential in new business segments.

• For example, CRCC signed an agreement with the government of Maharashtra, India to establish a manufacturing plant at the Multimodal International Cargo Hub and Airport in Nagpur (MIHAN). With these companies growing in the nation, the development of autonomous trains is expected to accelerate in the coming years.

Key Players Covered

• CRCC (China Railway Construction Corporation Ltd.) (China)


• CRRC (China Railway Rollingstone Corporation Ltd.) (China)


• Bombardier (acquired by Alstom in 2021) (Canada)


• Alstom (France)


• Thales Group (France)


• Wabtec Corporation (U.S.)


• Kawasaki Heavy Industries (Japan)


• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd (Japan)


• Hitachi (Japan)


• Siemens AG (Germany)


• General Electric (U.S.)

Segmentation

Key Industry Developments

• In May 2022, the Japanese Patent Office granted a new Japanese patent to "Rail Vision", a development stage technology business hoping to transform railway safety and the data-related industry. The company has created cutting-edge, artificial intelligence-based, industry-leading technology for railways.


• In November 2021, Delhi became the fourth city to have a Driverless Train Operation (DTO) of 59 km pink line Metrorail. Singapore (first), Shanghai (second), and Kuala Lumpur (third) are the first three cities.


• In September 2021, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Engineering formed a joint venture with Keolis to build the Dubai metro and tram. The Dubai metro commenced operating smoothly with a fully-automated driverless train system. Keolis-MHI Rail Management Operation LLC manages the services (Keolis-MHI).


• In August 2021, Siemens Mobility received a contract to develop, implement, and commission the first Communications-Based Train Control (CBTC) system for Malaysia and Singapore cross-border connection trains. The business has announced intentions to provide the CBTC technology for the Brazilian metro line in May 2022.


• In January 2021, Alstom finalized the acquisition of Bombardier Transportation, establishing a worldwide competitor in mobility and rail transport as the world moves toward sustainable transportation.