Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Impact Analysis, By Type (Bivalent and Polyvalent), By Disease Indication (HPV Associated Cancer and Genital Warts), By Distribution Channel (Hospital & Retail Pharmacies, Government Suppliers, and Others) and Geography Forecast, 2020-2027

The global Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine market size was valued at USD 3.80 billion in 2019 and is projected to reach USD 12.69 billion by 2027, exhibiting a CAGR of 16.3% during the forecast period. North America dominated the human papillomavirus vaccines market with a market share of 48.16% in 2019.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine have widely acclaimed as a sweeping vaccine innovation for the universal benefit of all the women and girls. Every year, thousands of women develop cervical cancer, and thousands die from the disease. Avast majority of these deaths occur in low and middle-income countries. Currently, in South-east Asia, cervical cancer is the second most common cancer, while China has recorded the highest incidence rates of cervical cancer in the world. Since 2008, three HPV vaccines have been developed and approved in more than 100 countries worldwide.

The need for reducing HPV infections will bode well for the market and create demand for HPV vaccines. According to the HPV Information Center, annual cases in 2018 for cervical cancer were the highest in emerging countries such as China and India, leading to the demand for vaccination camps offering doses. The governments from all the countries worldwide are keenly focused on implementing policies to help eradicate the burden of the disease. Moreover, owing to the imposition of stringent regulations, the vaccination supply has increased and is expected to rise e at a faster rate during the forecast period. This  increase in supply is will boost the global market during the forecast period 2020-2027.

Vaccine Distribution and Supply Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 outbreak has immensely affected countries worldwide exerting an economic pressure on the population. The pandemic has bought a halt to the regular vaccination campaigns conducted by the international bodies. According to the UNICEF, 99 countries reported the termination of the immunization campaigns for measles/rubella, polio, HPV, DTP, and many other antigens in May 2020. Additionally, GlaxoSmithKline reported a decline in the sales of its vaccine owing to lower demand in the nations. The consequences resulting from this situation would be far worse than the pandemic itself. According to the Global Alliance for Vaccines & Immunizations (GAVI), the ceasing of immunizations will result in a lack of vaccination of about 13.5 million people from the least developed countries. To sum-up, the occurrence of the disastrous pandemic has lowered the adoption of HPV vaccines. However, the market is anticipated to witness a positive growth during the forecast period owing to the launch of pipeline candidates.

LATEST TRENDS

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Growing Vaccines Supply by UNICEF, WHO, and PAHO to Aid Immunization Process

In the light of the growing prevalence of HPV associated disorders in the GAVI-supported countries, the manufacturers are focusing on increasing the production and supply of vaccine doses. During the Global Vaccine Summit held in June 2020, GSK, Merck, and other manufacturers promised to provide significant supply of the doses so as to increase the immunization against the disease. The international bodies such as UNICEF, and PAHO have offered a helping hand by supplying millions of vaccine doses to the countries in need. Large amounts of vaccine dose procurement by these organizations have led to a decrease in the prevalence rate of many diseases. Thus, increasing the immunity of population against the several infectious diseases are the key trends inthis market.

DRIVING FACTORS

Efficacy of HPV Vaccines to Accelerate the Sales

One of the most crucial and significant drivers of the market is the efficacy and protection provided by HPV vaccines to reduce the adverse effects associated with such infections. As manufacturers have developed novel vaccines of immunization, over the past years, a change in vaccination policies and beliefs have been observed worldwide. This has potentially increased the uptake and acceptability of HPV vaccines. Both bivalent and polyvalent vaccines have proved their efficacy and safety through clinical trials in protecting against HPV infections and cancer.  

Moreover, the increasing prevalence of cervical cancer in countries worldwide is anticipated to increase the sales of the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine, thus marking a stellar market growth in the near future. For instance, Merck’s Gardasil sales grew from US$ 1.9 billion in 2015 to US$ 3.7 billion in 2019. Coupled with this,the rising penetration of vaccine doses in both developing and low-income countries through the immunization programs by international organizations such as GAVI/PAHO/WHO will positively contribute to the HPV Vaccine sales worldwide.

Increasing Efforts to Meet Unmet Needs to Drive Production of HPV Vaccines

Another  factor driving the market is the increase in the manufacturing capability of HPV vaccines to maintain supply-demand balance worldwide. Currently, the supply of this vaccines is insufficient to meet the existing demand. This scenario is likely to persist for a short term due to the increase in the number of countries planning to introduce HPV vaccines. For instance, in December 2018, the Ministry of Health of Ethiopia introduced the HPV vaccine through school-based approach for girls under the age group of 14 years to immunize against cervical cancer. Moreover, in October 2018, Kenyan authorities started mass vaccination of girls against HPV. In May 2018, Zimbabwe introduced Human Papillomavirus Vaccine to protect against the country’s most deadly disease. GAVI is likely to fund the vaccines and this is expected to reach 800,000 girls across the country. But, later during the forecast period, the supply is expected to meet the demand leading to an upsurge of HPV vaccine sales. The growing efforts made by the manufacturers in support with governmental organizations to meet the unmet needs is likely to upsurge the production of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine during the foreseeable future.

RESTRAINING FACTORS

Limited Product Offerings to Restrict Growth

Although, HPV vaccines have higher demand owing to their effectiveness in lowering the infections, limited product offerings by the manufacturers is anticipated to hinder the market growth. Owing to the slow progress in the development of the vaccine, there will belimited launch of the products in the market. Despite the potential pipeline candidates in the row, HPV vaccines market is anticipated to have a lower market value. For instance, Inovio Pharmaceuticals pipeline candidate is in clinical trial stage 1. Additionally, candidates of Merck, GSK, and others are in various stages of the trial and have few years to be launched in the market.

SEGMENTATION

By Type Analysis

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Efficacy of Polyvalent Products to Dominate Market

Based on type, the Human Papillomavirus vaccines market can be segmented into bivalent and polyvalent. Polyvalent vaccines namely Gardasil/Gardasil 9 by Merck holds a lion’s share in the global market. Gardasil, a quadrivalent vaccine immunizes against HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18 strains. The vaccine helps in the prevention of cancer and other HPV infections. Gardasil 9, a nonavalent vaccine, provides immunization against nine high-risk HPV strains. As these are the only two products protecting against multiple HPV strains, they are in high demand and have greater sales worldwide. Gardasil/Gardasil 9 sales growth was driven by higher sales in Asia Pacific region, particularly China as well as higher demand in the European market.

Moreover, the U.S Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) approval on the expansion of age for HPV vaccination reflected on the sales growth of the two products. Besides this, the higher effectiveness of polyvalent vaccine as compared to bivalent vaccine is another factor responsible for increase in market value of polyvalent vaccines. Furthermore, strong R&D on the manufacturingof novel HPV vaccines is likely to help this segment rise at a high CAGR during the forecast period.  

On the other hand, bivalent vaccine, GSK’s Cervarix, has less demand worldwide. This has stopped the supply of Cervarix in the United States since 2017 due to the lack of demand. A decline in the total sales of Cervarix was also recorded in the year 2019. The efficacy of the competitors’ products is attributable to the lower market growth of Cervarix. Also, polyvalent vaccine is highly preferred as compared to the bivalent vaccine, which may  lead to a drop in the bivalent vaccine sales rate.

By Disease Indication Analysis

HPV Associated Cancer to Hold Leading Position Owing to Increased Prevalence

On the basis of disease indication, the global market is segmented into HPV associated cancer and genital warts. Among these, the HPV associated cancer segment accounted for the highest Human Papillomavirus vaccine market share in 2019. It is also likely to emerge as the fastest-growing segment during the forecast period. This dominance is attributed to the higher sales of the HPV type vaccines worldwide for immunization, mainly against cervical cancer. High-risk HPV16 and 18 strains have been maximally detected in cervical cancer patients leading to need for vaccination against these strains. The World Health Organization (WHO) says that 100% of the cervical cancers and 90% of anal cancers are caused due to HPV infections.

Presently, the availability of only three HPV vaccines has led to higher demand for protection against HPV16 and HPV18 associated infections. HPV associated cancers are largely observed in females than in males. According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the  incidence rates for vaginal, vulva and cervical cancer was recorded the highest in the year 2018. On the other hand, genital warts account for a comparatively lower market value as the infection is thought to disappear on its own or goes unnoticeable most of the  times. Genital warts, unless serious, do not require any medical treatment, though for vaccination against genital wartsare in demand. 

By Distribution Channel Analysis

Hospitals &Retail Pharmacies Segment to Emerge Leading Owing to Easy Availability of Vaccines

On the basis of distribution channel, the  market is segmented into hospitals & retail pharmacies, government suppliers, and others. Among these the hospitals & retail pharmacies is anticipated to hold the dominant share in the forecast period. Hospital setups are highly preferred by doctors for dealing with both major and minor complications. In addition to this, hospital setups are well equipped with all necessary equipmemnt needed for diagnostic purposes. Moreover, patients preference in having vaccination and treatment at the smaller and nearby institution is likely to contribute to the segmental growth. Therefore, the hospitals & retail pharmacies are also likely to emerge as the fastest-growing segment during the forecast period.

On the flip side, government suppliers also contribute to the growth of the market by procuring high doses of HPV vaccines from the manufacturers and supplying them at lower cost. Government suppliers such as GAVI/PAHO/UNICEF/WHO have vaccination surveillance systems to meet the shortage and demand across the world. According to GAVI, more than 3.9 million girls have received human papillomavirus immunization throughout the world through GAVI support.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

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North America generated a revenue of USD 1.83 billion in 2019 and is anticipated to dominate the global market in the forthcoming years. Higher sales value of Gardasil/Gardasil 9 and the rapid adoption of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine across the region is expected to drive the market growth in North America. Moreover, the implementation of marketing, distribution, and launching strategies by the key players ensuring higher sales has led to the dominance of North America in the global HPV vaccines market.

Asia Pacific is expected to showcase the highest growth rate in the market owing to the emendation of immunization policies by the governments that further propelled the demand for HPV vaccines in the region., contributing to The rising demand for vaccine supply, coupled with the growing incidence rates of HPV disease are responsible for the growth of the Asia Pacific market. According to the HPV Information Center in 2019, annual incidence of 106,430 cervical cancer cases was recorded in China alone. Likewise, India, Southeast Asia, and other countries have also recorded high annual incidence rates in 2019. The growing prevalence of HPV associated cancer and effective implementation of HPV immunization will drive the Asia Pacific market growth during the forecast period.

On the other hand, Latin America is projected to witness a significant growth in the market due to the penetration of HPV vaccines in the region and the increasing awareness among the patient pool regarding the benefits of HPV immunization. International organizations such as GAVI, PAHO, and UNICEF are also focused on providing vaccines to the needy by procuring high volume doses from manufacturers.  The European market for Human Papillomavirus Vaccine is anticipated to undergo a slower growth due to a lesser prevalence of HPV associated infections and the lack of adoption of its vaccines in under-developed parts of Europe. The Middle East and Africa will witness restricted growth in the market as compared to the other key regions owing to lack of awareness about the availability and adoption of this vaccines and stringent immunization policies. 

KEY INDUSTRY PLAYERS

Effective Vaccines of Merck Co. Inc., to Rule HPV Market

The market is dominated by Merck Co., Inc and GlaxoSmithKline plc., due to their only products available in the market for the treatment of HPV infections. Also, the implementation of key distribution strategy in the developed as well as in developing nations has led to an increase in sales of both the companies. Merck has a strong portfolio of HPV vaccines that includes Gardasil and Gardasil 9. Likewise, Merck Co., Inc also has an effective HPV vaccine portfolio in competition to GSK’s portfolio. The company’s top-selling vaccines Gardasil and Gardasil 9, are factors helping Merck cocntinue the leading position in the market competition.

Moreover, the other companies are focused on launching novel vaccines in the market against different strains of human papillomavirus. Currently, Merck has three pipeline candidates in phase 3, while GSK has two pipeline candidate undergoing clinical trials.

LIST OF KEY COMPANIES PROFILED:

• GlaxoSmithKline plc. (U.K., Europe)


• Merck & Co., Inc (New Jersey, U.S)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS:

• July 2020- Merck announced that the USFDA has approved an expanded indication for GARDASIL 9 (Human Papillomavirus 9-valent Vaccine, Recombinant) for the prevention of oropharyngeal and other head and neck cancers caused by HPV (Human Papillomavirus) Types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58


• June 2020 – On the eve of Global Vaccine Summit 2020, vaccine manufacturers MSD, GSK, Innovax, Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd. (SII) and Walvax ramped up human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine supply availability for Gavi-supported countries, which have among the highest cervical cancer burdens in the world


• January 2020 – The Food and Drug Administration has raised the recommended age to receive the vaccine for human papillomavirus, or HPV to 45

REPORT COVERAGE

An Infographic Representation of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccines Market

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The Human Papillomavirus vaccine market report provides a detailed analysis of the market and focuses on crucial aspects such as leading companies, type, disease indication, and distribution channels. Also, the report offers insights into market, current trends, and highlights the vital industry developments. In addition to the factors mentioned above, the report encompasses various factors that have contributed to the growth of the market over recent years.

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