Dairy Alternatives Market Size, Share and Industry Analysis, By Source (Soy, Almond, Coconut, Rice, Oats, and Others), By Product Type (Non-dairy Milk, Butter, Cheeses, Yogurts, Ice Cream, and Others), By Distribution Channel (Supermarkets/Hypermarkets, Convenience Stores, Online Retail, and Others), and Regional Forecast, 2024-2032

The global dairy alternatives market size was valued at USD 28.55 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow from USD 32.38 billion in 2024 to USD 91.15 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 13.81% during the forecast period. The dairy alternatives market in the U.S. is projected to grow significantly, reaching an estimated value of USD 18.91 billion by 2032, driven by increasing shift in consumer diet preferences and rising demand for plant-based products.

Plant-based milk substitutes are leading to the recent surge in demand for non-dairy products or dairy alternatives. Vegan milk is a suspension of dissolved and disintegrated plant extracts in water as a base. Homogenization and thermal treatments are the two processing techniques utilized to improve the suspension and stability of such plant-derived products.

Vegan milk has occupied the center stage in the non-dairy sector and is intensively marketed as a healthy, sustainable, and animal-welfare-friendly alternative. The sources of such alternative products are legumes, nuts, or cereals, the recognizable ingredients among most consumers from developed and developing economies. Additionally, the evolution and improvisation in dietary lifestyles, such as veganism and flexitarianism, fuel the demand for plant milk and associated products.

Despite the thriving popularity of dairy-free products, a slight decline in the dairy alternatives market growth was observed in 2020. This is owing to the spread of novel coronavirus across the world. This COVID-19 pandemic caused governments to impose a lockdown to reduce community transmission among people, affecting several industries. Lower labor availability, restricted capacity of workers, and hampered supply chain, among others, led to lower market growth in 2020. The imposition of trade barriers also negatively affected raw material availability. According to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka 2021 report, coconut production declined 11.3% during the initial quarters of 2020 compared to the previous year, attributable to the combined effects of supply chain discrepancies and lower nut production. Thus, raw material scarcity is another factor that impedes market growth due to the pandemic. However, the market is partially getting effective as several countries' governments control the situation. Thus, the market is expected to exhibit decent growth during the forecast period.

Dairy Alternatives Market Trends

Emerging Veganism and Growing Inclination of Consumers toward Plant-based Foods to Boost Growth

Plant-based milk is, in fact, not a novel processed food category on its own – some of the key giants, such as Oatly or Alpro, launched such products in Europe in the 1980s. The recent surge in demand for dairy alternatives, coupled with the dynamic growth in the past few years, is due to the robust popularity of plant-based ingredients and rising adoption rates for meat and dairy substitutes. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, approximately 8 million people followed a vegetarian diet and 1.58 million people followed a vegan diet in 2022. From an environmental standpoint, the dairy and meat sectors are the most significant greenhouse gas emitters. Furthermore, the water and carbon footprint of milk and dairy commodities is significantly higher than that of horticultural products.

Additionally, growing consumer preference for plant-based dairy products, investments from both private & public companies, and rising influence of Western countries are boosting the product’s demand in Asian countries, such as China and India. According to a combined study report by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India and Vegan First published in 2023, the plant-based dairy industry will grow by about 20% from 2023 to 2027 in India. The rising concern about environmental sustainability will positively influence the global dairy alternatives market share expansion in the upcoming years.

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Dairy Alternatives Market Growth Factors

Growing Concerns Regarding Processed Dairy Products to Drive the Market Growth

Lactose-intolerant consumers primarily drive the market for dairy alternatives. Besides, general consumers have an increasing perception that lactose-free products are healthy alternatives to conventional dairy. Lactose intolerance is due to the absence of the lactase enzyme that breaks down lactose. Nearly 65% of the human population shows reduced ability to digest lactose after infancy.

Developed markets of Western Europe and North America have witnessed a remarkable fall over the past two decades in the volumetric and value-based consumption of specific dairy categories. Consumers are inclining toward plant-based alternatives, especially in the most prominent markets of dairy products, due to their rising concerns over allergens, hormones, and unethical animal husbandry practices prevalent in the dairy sector. The production of dairy products has significant environmental impacts that contribute to soil degradation, air and water pollution, and biodiversity loss.

Product Innovation and Wider Reach to Ensure Success for the Market in the Foreseeable Future

Plant milk and milk products are expected to fetch more significant market share and stronger growth rates than their conventional dairy counterparts in the coming years as veganism is set to go mainstream. The growing preference for flexitarian, vegetarian, and vegan food lifestyles would further push the sales of plant-based dairy substitutes. This trend, coupled with the ever-increasing health, animal welfare, and environmental issues, may constrain the revenue performance of the dairy sector. The sustainable growth trajectory of products hinges on value-added products that appeal to consumers' nutritional and aesthetic needs. Moreover, such products must establish effective market penetration along with the economy of the scale so that they are not only widely available and affordable but also accessible at all sales points where dairy products are normally marketed.

Furthermore, celebrities are promoting vegan foods, including alternatives to dairy products, which will propel the market in the coming years. For instance, in February 2023, one of the world’s leading plant-based milk brands, Silk, unveiled an advertising campaign called ‘Got Milk?’ to promote out-of-home consumption. The brand collaborated with well-known celebrities, such as Brooklyn Peltz Beckham, Ella Bleu Travolta, and Sailor Brinkley Cook.

RESTRAINING FACTORS

Sub-optimal Market Penetration and Low Consumer Awareness to Lower Sales

One of the key restraints in the plant-based milk and milk products market is the organoleptic profiles of such novel products. Processors usually encounter challenges with solubility issues and taste while developing non-dairy products. The repeated purchase rates for these dairy-free products are far below that of conventional dairy products, indicating that the sensory profiles of milk alternatives are not yet at par with that of dairy milk and its derivatives. Moreover, some plant-based milk and its derivatives are very low in terms of both macro and micronutrients. Thus, they cannot compete with conventional dairy products in terms of nutritional content. Soy milk naturally has a protein content similar to cow’s milk. Almond milk, one of the most popular non-dairy options, contains only 1 gram of protein per 8 ounces.

Dairy Alternatives Market Segmentation Analysis

By Source Analysis

Soy Segment to Exhibit Astonishing Growth Backed by Broader Availability

Based on the source, the market is segmented into soy, almond, coconut, rice, oats, and others.  The milk market is heavily commoditized, and thus, consumers are experimenting by purchasing innovative products. Soy milk has been a clear leader in terms of the source, owing to its broader availability in the Asia Pacific market, particularly in China. Nonetheless, almond milk will witness faster growth than all the other sources of dairy alternatives. It is rapidly gaining popularity among consumers as they avoid soy due to allergies or other health concerns associated with the products. Almond milk is low in calories, and recently, almond-based non-dairy products have been witnessing stronger acceptance rates in the North American, European, and Australian beverage markets. These products are also well branded and marketed sophisticatedly, appealing to younger consumers.

By Product Type Analysis

Non-dairy Milk Segment to Lead Owing to Favorable Demand Dynamics

Based on the product type, the market is classified into non-dairy milk, butter, cheeses, yogurts, ice cream, and others. The non-dairy revolution began with the development of milk alternatives. The segment is still dominating the global market, owing to favorable demand dynamics, increasing interest among the key giants and private-label players to develop milk from plant-based sources, and strong growth potential for vegan beverages. However, segments such as vegan ice cream, cheese, and yogurt, would showcase faster growth rates than the non-dairy milk segment owing to their rising popularity among consumers across all age groups. The foodservice sector is rapidly evolving in terms of its product offerings and claims such as ‘non-dairy,’ ‘vegan,’ ‘plant-based,’ and ‘natural’ are experiencing considerable consumer attention. The appeal of vegan foods has now gone far beyond the vegan consumers along with the compelling plant-based label claims projecting offerings such as ‘healthy-indulgence’ among consumers.

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By Distribution Channel Analysis

Supermarkets/Hypermarkets to Dominate Market Owing to Introduction of Novel Products

Mass merchandisers, such as supermarkets/hypermarkets, are leading and holding the largest market share in distribution channels owing to their proximity, accessibility, and affordability. A dedicated retail shelf for vegan and plant-based products is coupled with attractive discounts offered to entice consumers and increase their adaptation rates among them. Plant-based products are increasingly developing their own identity. They are undergoing a remarkable transition from their traditional image of being meat or dairy alternatives. These products have successfully moved to the convenience space, and consumers are finding them easy to store, prepare, and eat. Online stores with their robust convenience, enhanced shopping experience, and increased digital literacy rates among individuals are expected to contribute to the stronger growth rate of the segment during the forecast period.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

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Asia Pacific dominated the dairy alternatives market with a market share of 52.43% in 2023. A marked increase in the reported cases of cow milk allergies and lactose intolerance drives the market in Asia Pacific. Additionally, calorie concerns and higher prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and obesity have made consumers shift to vegan diets, thereby adopting cow milk alternatives. Enlightened consumers are becoming highly critical of dairy products' nutritional attributes. These can be a cost-effective substitute for poor economic groups in developing countries. They can also be marketed in regions where cow milk supply is insufficient.

With its rapidly expanding retail market and the strain on natural resources, North America is expected to utilize more plant-based options that have a vital role in providing food and nutritional security. Consumers in the region are well-informed about the plethora of dairy alternatives, which are also more readily available than ever before. The regional market will witness growth owing to the rising number of consumers eating more plant-based food and not due to those who are adopting vegan diets. Consumers in Europe are increasingly motivated to seek innovative plant-based products. Furthermore, the concerns regarding plant-based products' sustainability and eco-friendly aspects will generate more sales among the younger cohort. Overall, the global market is set to generate considerable market revenue in the coming years with effective contributions from South America the Middle East & Africa.

In South America, the market is mainly influenced by the rising shifts toward reducing or completely abandoning the consumption of animal-based products, such as dairy items, due to improving health, animal, and environmental welfare concerns. In major economies, such as Brazil and Argentina, the popularity of dairy-free yogurts and ice cream has grown substantially, as prominent players, such as Danoses S.A. and So Delicious, are introducing innovative and attractive options in the vegan segment. The trend is observed majorly among millennials due to their growing interest in plant proteins.

The Middle East & Africa observes a gradual rise in demand for vegan products, owing to their evolving consumption patterns and diets. This change is mainly attributed to urbanization and exposure to the Western food culture. This shift has also been supported by the growing awareness of the detrimental greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector. The emerging trend of modernization and evolving modern trades are some of the factors expected to support the growth.

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List of Key Companies in Dairy Alternatives Market

Global Market Space is Led by Highly Dynamic and Moderately Consolidated Market Conditions 

The global market is moderately consolidated with a significant presence of key dairy alternatives giants. These players are also actively embarking on acquisitions and mergers to further strengthen their position and make a decisive shift to ensure their future growth amidst a decline in the popularity of dairy products. For instance, Danone S.A., a French multinational food-products corporation, recently acquired several leading plant-based brands, such as Silk, Vega, and Alpro, to strengthen its vegan products portfolio. The competitive intensity of the market is expected to enhance during the foreseeable years if such globally recognized players develop and offer alternatives that are not only nutritionally adequate and environmentally sound but also economical and acceptable. At the same time, they are constantly trying to keep up with the dairy substitutes market trends to create more products.

LIST OF KEY COMPANIES PROFILED:

• Danone S.A. (France)


• Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (U.S.)


• Blue Diamond Growers (U.S.)


• SunOpta, Inc. (Canada)


• Vitasoy International Holdings Ltd (Hong Kong)


• Daiya Food, Inc. (Canada)


• Goya Foods, Inc. (U.S.)


• Living Harvest Foods, Inc. (India)


• Organic Valley (U.S.)


• Eden Foods, Inc. (U.S.)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS:

• February 2024 – Califia Farms, an American plant-based milk company, launched a creamy plant-based milk made from a blend of pea, chickpea, and fava bean protein that consists of nine essential nutrients and essential amino acids.


• February 2023 – Kagome USA, a leading global sauce producing company, launched sweet and savory vegan butter blends in the U.S. market.


• June 2022 – Strive Nutrition Corp. a plant-based beverages manufacturing company, signed a partnership with Perfect Day to launch a new line of milk alternatives. These new range of products are enriched with Perfect Day’s animal-free whey protein.


• April 2022 - Wicked Foods, Inc., a plant-based food manufacturer, introduced its new plant-based ice creams and novelties range, which is a first-to-market product launched in the U.S.


• January 2022 – Chobani LLC launched a new plant-based coffee creamers line in four flavors, which are non-GMO and free from artificial flavors and sweeteners.

Report Coverage

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The global dairy alternatives market research report provides a detailed analysis of the market and focuses on key aspects such as leading companies, market segmentation, product types, and leading distribution channels of the product. Besides this, the report offers insights into the market trends, key players, and highlights key industry developments. In addition to the aforementioned factors, the report encompasses several factors that have contributed to the growth prospects of the market in recent years. Along with this, the report provides an exhaustive analysis of the market dynamics and competitive scenario. Various critical insights presented in the report are the overview of related markets, recent developments such as mergers & acquisitions, the regulatory situation in prominent countries, and key industry trends.

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